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Web 2.0: Disruption Creates Opportunity

London, 18 November 2005

Technology corporate finance specialist FirstCapital hosted a breakfast seminar on the 18th of November 2005 as a forum to discuss the opportunities for European investment into Web 2.0. More than 100 venture capitalists and industry executives gathered to discuss the opportunities presented by Web 2.0 and evaluate recent trends.

On the panel were;
  • Paul Fisher, Associate Director of FirstCapital
  • John Battelle, Founder and Chairman of Federated Media Publishing
  • Judy Gibbons, Venture Partner, Accel, Board of Directors, 02.
  • Simon Levene, Managing Director, Corporate Development Yahoo!
  • Nick Kingsbury, Global Head of Software, 3i
Paul Fisher opened the seminar by stating his definition of Web 2.0: "Web 2.0 is a collection of new technologies which are offered over the web which make possible a new set of products, services and business models." A more granular definition of the sector is given by Tim O'Reilly of O'Reilly media.

The common factor of 2.0 businesses which is exciting VCs is: DISRUPTION

John Battelle questioned if the market is really ready for Web 2.0, and pointed to a series of problems with Version 1.0
  • Funding: Version 1.0 received more venture and public funding than the market was ready for.
  • Timing: VCs overestimated how quickly it would happen (changing buying patterns takes time).
  • Impact: VCs underestimated the impact of the web. The impact of the technologies in the late 90's, are much more profound than was previously thought.
The panellists referred to a number of web economics which are very favourable to the second coming of the web:
  • The web is now a low-cost route to market.
  • Web advertising market share is predicted to be 6.9% in 2007 up from 1.2% in 2000 and at the expense of TV and press. (According to statistics from Zenith Optimedia)
  • The long tail of consumer demand is real; this is why Bob Young: the founder of Red Hat software; left Red Hat and to set up Lulu, a long-tail publishing technology business.
The panel highlighted a number of underlying market enablers, which have made web 2.0 businesses attractive to investors.
  • Broadband penetration: the Internet is now constantly available and has become an intrinsic part of our lives. According to Neilsen/Netratings today over 60% of US homes have broadband connections, and in six months this is expected to rise to around 75%.
  • An educated user-base: the dotcoms invested a lot of time and money promoting the internet to both consumers and businesses; which has led to its mass adoption.
  • Large amounts of money have been dedicated to the research and development of Web 2.0.
  • Today, both large corporates and entrepreneurs have a much better understanding of what the value chain is, and where they can sit within it.
  • It is now recognised that the value lies in what is in the window (the service and application that each user chooses to use).
  • Much more opportunities and profits now, than in the late 90s.
Simon Levene stated that venture capitalists have a series of unique challenges with web 2.0 business models: entrepreneurs can launch web-businesses that have a very low initial capital cost, a zero cost of customer acquisition and are cash flow positive from day one. He concluded "Web 2.0 businesses are capital efficient, their capital needs are very modest; so VCs need to invest in such companies at early stages, as there may never be a later round".

The panel went on to discuss the current sign of exit premiums in the market:
  • MySpace ($580mn Newscorp.)
  • ITV (£140mn Friends Re-United 28 times earnings).
  • Skype (a classic web 2.0: which leverages the ubiquity of IP, broadband, which is combined with clever technology to do something new.
Simon Levene pointed out that selected web based businesses are clearly making money. The challenge for VCs is to answer which ones. He suggested that one way of predicting success very early on, is by looking at the frequency of usage.

Competition for Venture Capitalists
Judy Gibbons of Accel commented "there will be a massive appetite from companies like Yahoo! and Cisco to develop a core competence in acquisition and incubation". The assumption was confirmed by Simon Levene who stated that "the amount of M&A has grown rapidly within Yahoo over the past few years". Historically Yahoo! looked at Venture Capitalists as a partner; however companies such as Yahoo! are increasingly competing with VCs for deals, for example Accel were out bid by Yahoo! on Flickr.

Is there a Bubble?
Nick Kingsbury of 3i, proposed that the simple way to answer this question: is to look at the price of Web 2.0 companies on the way in, and out of the market. He believed that as a VC in Europe the pricing of deals on the way in is not at crazy levels, compared with the prices in the US. Whilst on the way out there are many success stories which are getting very high valuations, but there are also numerous underperformers. Nick suggested that in the US a bubble maybe developing, but not to the same degree as before because today there are real customers.

What makes a good web 2.0 business?
John Batelle gave a number of suggestions:
  • Content is king: extensive content coupled with online communities and the power of viral marketing, means that success on the internet is now democratic: users choose what they want, and so the key to success is to provide the best content.
  • Less is more: The barriers to entry are low, and if you are deeply connected in your niche area, constant feedback loops enable the entrepreneur to constantly refine and upgrade products. This is a huge advantage over larger organisations, which have long product development cycles.
Exciting investment opportunities
Nick Kingsbury suggested that internet security will become increasingly important, "we need better security solutions, particularly in situations where there is trading going on".

Judy Gibbons proposed that there will be massive opportunities in mobile internet for several reasons;
  • People now depend on and are "addicted" to the internet in so many areas of their life, and want to access wherever they go.
  • As the internet comes to mobile devices people will want to use it in a different way i.e. personalisation and location, which will lead to fantastic opportunities for start-ups.
  • While many operators have invested in their own 'walled and semi-walled gardens' for internet content, higher speed browsing on more capable handsets is likely to demand for access to the broader internet.